Assessing water scarcity and potential for irrigation development in Europe and Central Asia

Agriculture plays an important role in the socioeconomic development of the Europe–Central Asia region (ECA). This area is highly diverse in terms of climate and geography, allowing countries to grow a wide range of crops for domestic consumption and exports, such as cereals, oil crops, and fruits. About 87 % of ECA’s cropland is rainfed, making crop production increasingly vulnerable to droughts and water scarcity.

Here, we present a new World Bank study, which applies a gridded process-based crop model ACEA to assess the present (1992–2019) and future (under three SSP–RCP scenarios till 2100) exposures to i) green water scarcity (GWS), ii) blue water scarcity (BWS), and iii) the potential for irrigation development across all major crops in 21 ECA countries. Presently, this region has around 21 million ha of rainfed cropland experiencing GWS—restricted crop growth due to insufficient rainfall—mainly affecting Kazakhstan, Türkiye, and Ukraine. This exposure to GWS is projected to increase in the future, worsened by further increases in the frequency and extent of extreme droughts. On the other hand, most of these areas experience no BWS—unsustainable levels of blue water consumption considering environmental flow requirements—and thus, developing irrigation can serve as a vital adaptation strategy. We estimate that currently around 14.6 million ha under GWS can potentially transition to irrigation (increasing by 11.5–30.6 % by 2100), which would not only reduce GWS-related risks but also support the socioeconomic development in ECA. This transition, however, should be considered only as one of the several options on the “menu of solutions”. Other agricultural practices, such as changing cropping patterns and improved soil management, should be explored before investing in new irrigation systems.

This study demonstrates a novel application of gridded crop modelling and offers vital insights into the present and future water scarcity levels in the ECA region, while also demonstrating the potential of irrigation in addressing the associated risks.