How Uncertainty Shapes Climate (In)action: Behavioral Dynamics of Farmers’ Adaptation Decisions

Agricultural systems are increasingly exposed to deep uncertainty as climate change amplifies the frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of hydroclimatic extremes. This uncertainty affects the behavior of farmers, whose individual responses have a significant impact on the resilience of regional land-use and water systems. However, the ways in which different types of uncertainty affect farmers’ adaptation decisions remain insufficiently understood, as scientific discourse has emphasized model-based uncertainty while giving less attention to behavioral dimensions.

This contribution presents a conceptual framework that integrates uncertainty research into the Model of Private Proactive Adaptation to Climate Change (MPPACC), which allows the analysis of the internal reasoning behind action or inaction in farmers’ drought and flood adaptation decisions. Drawing on survey data from 102 farmers in Lower Saxony, Germany, and using multiple linear regressions to examine the relationships specified in the conceptual framework, we analyze how various dimensions of uncertainty are perceived and how these perceptions influence responses to hydro-climatic extremes. The results show that uncertainty perceptions function as dynamic factors shaping behavior and highlight underlying mechanisms explaining why some farmers delay or avoid adaptation despite rising environmental risks, while others adopt proactive measures in response to uncertainty. Specifically, personal attitudes and uncertainty-related competences influence how uncertainty is interpreted, while reliance on forecast and past experiences can amplify perceived uncertainties, contrary to prevailing assumptions.

Thus, this work offers insights for designing strategies for policymakers that more accurately reflect the decision contexts of individuals under deep uncertainty, including strengthening farmers’ decision competence through capacity-building and improving science communication and uncertainty narratives.