Evaluating Pathways and Feasibility of District-Scale Building Decarbonization: A Municipal Case Study in Seoul

Achieving national carbon neutrality requires actionable implementation at the municipal level. In Seoul's Dongdaemun-gu, buildings account for 65.2% of greenhouse gas emissions (998 ktCO₂eq, 2018) with ambitious reduction targets of 34% by 2030, 44.3% by 2034, and net-zero by 2050. However, most urban energy studies focus on individual buildings or employ national-level statistics, leaving a critical gap at the district (Gu) scale—where policy authority, infrastructure planning, and technical feasibility converge. This study addresses two key questions: which decarbonization pathway is more viable for district-scale implementation, and can these municipal targets be technically and economically achieved?

We employ City Energy Analyst (CEA) to simulate district-wide building energy systems for all buildings in Dongdaemun-gu. The model encompasses building thermal performance, heating and cooling systems, occupancy patterns, and district energy infrastructure, calibrated against national energy statistics and actual public building consumption data. We compare four scenarios: Current Policy (S0), Heat Pump Electrification Pathway (S1), District Energy & Fuel Cell Pathway (S2), and Integrated Net-Zero Pathway (S3). For each scenario, we quantify final energy consumption, direct building-sector emissions while separating grid decarbonization effects, and economic costs to identify the most feasible route to meeting municipal targets.

By conducting Urban Building Energy Modeling at the district administrative scale, this research bridges the gap between theoretical decarbonization scenarios and implementable municipal climate policies. The findings will quantify the trade-offs between distributed electrification and centralized geoenergy infrastructure, providing evidence-based guidance for how local governments can translate national carbon neutrality commitments into concrete technology deployment strategies. This approach demonstrates the critical role of district-scale analysis in advancing urban energy transformation and climate policy implementation.

This research was supported by Carbon Neutrality Specialized Graduate Program through the Korea Environmental Industry & Technology Institute(KEITI) funded by the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment(MCEE).