Climate Change and Sorghum Yield-WUE Dynamics in Maharashtra: Unveiling the Impacts of Temperature and Rainfall Variability on Crop Performance

Sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench), a vital crop in semi-arid region Maharashtra, is increasingly threatened by climate change, characterized by erratic monsoons, prolonged droughts, and rising temperatures. As a staple cultivated during kharif and rabi seasons, sorghum supports food security and livelihoods for millions of farmers. However, these environmental shifts are jeopardizing yield and water use efficiency (WUE), particularly in rainfed systems. This study employs the DSSAT-CERES-Sorghum model to assess these impacts, utilizing historical India Meteorological Department (IMD) data (1980–2009) and CMIP6 Global Climate Model (GCM) projections under SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions) scenarios. Focused on Maharashtra, the research aims to quantify yield-WUE changes and classify climate stress regimes (hot/dry, cool/wet) using percentile thresholds to understand regional vulnerabilities. The methodology integrates comprehensive datasets, including soil properties, crop management practices, and genotype parameters for kharif and rabi cultivars. The CERES-Sorghum model simulates baseline and future performance, accounting for temperature, rainfall, and irrigation effects. Climate data from GCMs provides projections for mid-century (2040–2069) and end-century (2070–2099), enabling a comparative analysis of climate impacts across Maharashtra’s diverse agro-climatic zones. Simulations are expected to indicate significant yield declines and reduced WUE by 2040–2069, with further deterioration by 2070–2099 in rainfed systems. Elevated temperatures (Tmax > 35°C) and irregular rainfall are anticipated to drive heat and water stress, leading to poor yield-WUE performance in vulnerable regions. This will pose risks to food security and farmer livelihoods, highlighting areas where agricultural output is most at risk. The study will integrate baseline and future data to identify these critical zones, providing a foundation for targeted adaptation strategies. These insights aim to enhance Maharashtra agricultural resilience by informing sustainable practices to mitigate climate variability effects. The research addresses knowledge gaps in integrating yield, WUE, and climate stress indicators for Maharashtra, where localized assessments are limited despite the crop’s importance. By leveraging advanced modelling, the study offers a robust framework to predict future trends and support policy interventions. The expected outcomes will underscore the urgency of adapting to changing climate conditions, ensuring the sustainability of sorghum production. This effort is crucial for safeguarding Maharashtra’s agricultural heritage and supporting its rural economy against the backdrop of escalating environmental challenges.