Tracing the emerging Recovery Signals of Arctic Stratospheric Ozone

The recovery of Arctic ozone has become an increasingly important indicator of the effectiveness of global policies regulating ozone-depleting substances. While severe ozone depletion first emerged over Antarctica in the late 1970s and reached its maximum in the late 1980s, Antarctic ozone has exhibited clear recovery since the early 2000s. In contrast, long-term ozone trends in the Arctic have remained uncertain due to strong dynamical variability. In this study, we investigate Arctic ozone changes from 1988 to 2024 using a comprehensive set of observations, including satellite datasets, ozonesondes, reanalysis products, and ground-based measurements. Our analysis reveals statistically significant positive trends in upper-stratospheric ozone (3–1 hPa), reaching up to 0.915 ± 0.251% per decade, based on the Stratospheric Water and Ozone Satellite Homogenized (SWOOSH) and merged satellite records (SAGE-CCI-OMPS). Total column ozone (TCO) also exhibits a significant increase during 2000–2024, with trends of 8.51 ± 6.03 DU/dec from merged satellite (MSAT) records and 6.51 ± 3.88 DU/dec from ground-based observations. Seasonal analysis of combined station data reveals robust positive trends in the southern Arctic (Lerwick, Scoresbysund, Sodankylä, Oslo) during autumn (9.11 ± 2.38 DU/dec) and spring (6.24 ± 4.71 DU/dec), while the other seasons exhibit weak but positive trends. Although the extreme Arctic ozone depletion event of 2020 influences trend estimates across different post-2000 periods. Nevertheless, all stations exhibit positive TCO trends from 2000 to 2024, providing strong evidence that Arctic ozone is undergoing recovery.