Dynamics of Sectoral Water Demand and Future Water Stress Hotspots in Indian River Basins

Terrestrial water availability in India is increasingly affected by both climate variability and human activities such as groundwater extraction, reservoir operations, and the expansion of irrigation. However, the observed trends in these factors and their future changes at the river basin level are still not well quantified, making it difficult to plan effective water management strategies. In this study, we assess the individual and combined impacts of climate change and human interventions on the water budgets of major Indian river basins using an ensemble framework that includes the Community Water Model (CWatM) hydrological models. We specifically analyze the changes in sectoral water demands, including agricultural, domestic, and industrial, analyzing their historical progression and projected changes from 1951 to 2100. Based on IMD datasets and CMIP6 scenarios, we identify key regions likely to face water stress in the future and estimate uncertainties in water availability. These findings support the development of sustainable water management plans in response to evolving sectoral trends and climate-related challenges across the Indian subcontinent.