Same performance, different confidence: gender bias in geoscience students

In Spain, enrollment in Geology degrees has dropped by 73% since 2000, accompanied by an average first-year dropout rate of 37%. At the University of the Basque Country, this decline is even higher, reaching 48.9%. These trends raise concerns about academic performance and student retention, prompting a group of faculty members from the Geology Department to implement studies aimed at improving engagement and learning outcomes. Results highlighted the need to strengthen students’ vocational awareness and suggested a potential gender bias in self-perception of abilities, an issue worth addressing since women represent over 40% of students (female teachers accounted for only 26% in 2017/18, rising to 37.5% in 2025/26).

Building on these insights, a new line of work focused on metacognitive skills, specifically students’ ability to distinguish between observation-based data and interpretation. To gather precise information, a survey was conducted over three academic years (2023/24, 2024/25, 2025/26) with second-year students. The instrument included: (i) Eight statements on geological topics, requiring classification as either observation (data) or interpretation, to assess discrimination ability rather than factual knowledge; (ii) Self-assessment of skills for data collection and interpretation in two contexts (fieldwork and laboratory); and (iii) Self-identified gender.

Results revealed no differences in actual performance between male and female students, as both groups were equally accurate in classifying statements. However, a distinctive pattern emerged when two indices of metacognitive monitoring were applied. The Calibration Index (CI), which measures the discrepancy between confidence judgments and performance, showed similar values for both genders, indicating that the overall gap between perception and performance was comparable. In contrast, the Bias Index (BI), which measures the direction of judgment error (positive values indicate overconfidence, negative values under-confidence), revealed that male students consistently overestimated their abilities across all tasks, whereas female students displayed more accurate self-perceptions and even slightly conservative estimates in some activities.

These findings suggest that gender differences are not explained by performance but by self-assessment bias, revealed through systematic male overconfidence. Addressing this gender-related bias, along with strategies to strengthen vocational awareness and metacognitive skills, is crucial for improving retention and academic success in Geology programs.