Climate Change, Flood Wave Characteristics and Local Scour: A review of Modelling Approaches

Climate change is expected to alter the frequency, magnitude, and temporal structure of flood waves, with direct implications for local scour development at bridge piers and, consequently, for bridge safety and management. While numerous studies have addressed individual methodological components of this problem - such as climate change projections, hydrological modelling, or scour estimation - the methodological links between climate change indicators, flood wave characteristics, and local scour processes remain fragmented and are often treated in isolation. This contribution presents preliminary insights from an ongoing systematic literature review that investigates how climate change signals are propagated through hydrological and hydraulic modelling chains and ultimately reflected in local scour assessments at bridge piers. The review focuses on peer-reviewed studies addressing (i) climate change modelling and approaches, (ii) hydrological representations of flood waves, including peak flow, volume, duration, and hydrograph shape, and (iii) deterministic and probabilistic methods for evaluating local scour. Attention is given to how uncertainties are treated across these methodological steps and to the extent to which flood wave characteristics beyond peak discharge are explicitly considered. The preliminary synthesis highlights recurring methodological patterns, key knowledge gaps, and inconsistencies in current practice, especially regarding the integration of climate projections with hydrological design events and scour modelling frameworks. The findings are organized into a structured classification of modelling approaches, input data requirements, and uncertainty treatment, providing a basis for further in-depth analysis. This contribution provides a structured synthesis of existing methodological approaches and identifying gaps relevant for future model development and application of climate change assessment on erosion processes around bridge piers.

 

Acknowledgment:

This work has been supported in part by the Croatian Science Foundation under the project SERIOUS – Synthetic dEsign hydrographs undeR current and future clImate for local bridge scOUr aSsessment (IP-2024-05-1497) and by the “Young Researchers’ Career Development Project – Training New Doctoral Students” (DOK-2020-01-5354).