Rainfed agriculture under a changing climate: Investigating barley crop growth at seasonal and decadal timescales

Rainfed agriculture is widely practiced across Mediterranean landscapes; however, its strong dependence on seasonal weather conditions makes it particularly vulnerable to drought and heat stress. Under projected increases in the frequency and intensity of these extremes due to climate change, the agricultural sector requires timely and reliable information to support planning and adaptation strategies. The main objective of this study is to investigate the response of a rainfed crop to climate variability at both seasonal and decadal timescales. The crop examined is barley, a major rainfed cereal cultivated in semi-arid and Mediterranean regions. Cyprus, located in the Eastern Mediterranean, is used as a case study. Crop growth is simulated using the Noah Land Surface Model with multi-parameterization options and a crop module (Noah-MP-Crop). The model is calibrated and evaluated against observations of evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange measured by an eddy covariance flux tower, soil moisture from sensors at multiple depths, leaf area index, and crop yield for the period 2020 - 2025 at an agricultural site in the central plain of the island. The long-term average rainfall for the site is 315 mm. To assess climate impacts on crop growth and yield, the calibrated model is subsequently applied across Cyprus, focusing on areas under rainfed barley cultivation. Climate impacts are analysed at seasonal and decadal scales using two simulation experiments driven by bias-corrected and statistically downscaled climate datasets. Seasonal simulations are forced by ECMWF SEAS5, while decadal simulations are based on EC-Earth3 DCCP CMIP6. All simulations are conducted at a spatial resolution of 0.1° for the period 1982–2016.

This research received financial support from the European Union under the PREVENT Project (GAP 101081276).