Modelling Resilience of the UK Poultry Sector to Socio-Ecological Shocks: A Data-Driven System Dynamics Approach

The UK poultry industry supplies 50% of the nation’s meat demand, serving as a cornerstone of national food security. Industrialisation and the rise of ‘megafarms’ have rendered poultry a cheap, nutritious, and widely available protein source; production nearly doubled from 1.0 million tonnes in 1994 to 1.9 million tonnes in 2024, while per capita consumption rose from 23 kg in 2007 to 31 kg by 2022. However, intensive farming has triggered significant public concern regarding animal welfare and the environmental impact of farm waste on UK watercourses. Furthermore, recent shocks—including Brexit, COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and increasing extreme weather—underscore the urgent need for systemic resilience against natural, socio-economic, and geopolitical disruptions.

Addressing these challenges requires a comprehensive systems approach. Despite increasing calls for systems thinking, robust modelling methods remain underutilised in the field. This study employs a data-driven System Dynamics approach to explore the complex interdependencies of poultry production and consumption, evaluating the trade-offs between system benefits and harms across human, animal, microbial, and environmental communities.

The model was developed through a participatory framework in collaboration with academics and industry stakeholders. A group model building approach—incorporating workshops, interviews, and collective scenario specification—enabled qualitative and quantitative modelling, optimisation, and the development of a decision-support tool. The simulation captures the dynamic interrelations between medicated feed, waste management, and welfare, tracing the sector’s evolution since the 1950s. By analyzing how the industrialisation of biochemical processes has shifted the dynamics between poultry, people, and the planet, this study identifies key vulnerabilities and pathways for enhancing the resilience and sustainability of the UK poultry sector.