Observations of the Leeuwin Current and variability, and future projections of Ningaloo Niño marine heatwaves

In this presentation, we review the recent research progress based on moored observations of the Leeuwin Current, an eastern boundary current of the south Indian Ocean, off the west coast of Australia, over the past 15 years. The focus will be on the seasonal cycle of the Leeuwin Current, as well as the interannual temperature variability and its drivers, with a focus on the Ningaloo Niño – an austral summer marine heatwave event. In the future climate projections, the Leeuwin Current (along with the Indonesian Throughflow) will become weaker, as shown in both climate model projections and downscaling models. However, the Ningaloo Niño is expected to strengthen in the future climate, with its peak month shifting from February to March in the austral summer. Climate model projections suggest that both enhanced local air-sea coupling and remote forcing from the Pacific may induce such a strengthening of the warming events.