Spatial patterns of Arctic ecosystem changes under recent climate warming and permafrost degradation

Recent climate warming in the Arctic is driving accelerated permafrost degradation (Biskaborn et al., 2019), representing one of the most severe consequences of contemporary climate change (Rantanen et al., 2022; Schuur et al., 2022), with profound impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and the global climate system (Calvin et al., 2023). Although Arctic greening has been widely documented, ecosystem responses remain spatially heterogeneous and include both vegetation expansion and degradation (Kropp et al., 2025; Frost et al., 2025).

The aim of our study is to investigate the spatial patterns of Arctic ecosystem dynamics over the past four decades in relation to recent climate warming and permafrost degradation, using multi-temporal satellite observations and spatial analysis techniques. Time series of satellite-derived vegetation (NDVI, GNDVI, SAVI, MSAVI, EVI) and water indices (NDWI, AWEIsh) from Landsat (1984–2025) and MODIS (2000-2025) were analyzed to identify trends and anomalies in vegetation productivity and surface water dynamics. The analysis was conducted using a reproducible workflow based on the Microsoft Planetary Computer STAC and automated Python scrips, enabling efficient data extraction and consistent processing across temporal and spatial scales.

Results reveal widespread greening across large areas of the Arctic tundra, with a general increase up to 0.03 – 0.04 in vegetation indices. However, localized browning and declining vegetation are observed in areas affected by permafrost thaw, surface subsidence, and altered hydrological regimes. Contrasting patterns are also revealed by water indices, with increasing values indicating the formation of new lakes, and decreasing values associated with drainage or vegetation encroachment. These patterns highlight strong spatial linkages between climate warming, permafrost dynamics, and ecosystem response.

Overall, this study emphasizes that Arctic ecosystem change is characterized by complex and heterogenous trend and underscores the importance of spatially explicit monitoring frameworks for assessing Arctic ecosystem vulnerability and resilience under ongoing climate change.

 

Acknowledgement

This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No. 101086386, EO-PERSIST - A Cloud-Based Remote Sensing Data System for Promoting Research and Socioeconomic Studies In Arctic Environments (https://www.eo-persist.eu).

 

References

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