Process-based modelling of soil functions across agricultural land-use types under climate change

The functioning of agricultural ecosystems is increasingly threatened by global change drivers, including climate change and land-use intensification, through the disruption of vital ecosystem processes. Process-based simulation models offer a powerful tool to disentangle the complex interactions between microbiota, plants and soils, providing a foundation for long-term projections and scenario analyses.

Within the framework of the “Global Change Experimental Facility (GCEF)”, extensive datasets on plant physiology, soil nutrients, soil microbial and faunal communities, and soil physical properties have been collected across multiple agricultural land-use types. These include conventional and organic cropping systems, intensively and extensively managed meadows, and extensively grazed sheep pastures, each exposed to both ambient and experimentally simulated future-climate conditions.

Here, we present an extended version of the process-based soil model BODIUM, now capable of simulating grassland dynamics in addition to cropping systems. This extension allows for a comparison of ecosystem processes across contrasting land-use types. The model was parameterized for various GCEF land-use systems, and simulated outputs, including plant shoot and root biomass, and soil carbon, nitrogen and water dynamics, were compared with empirical data for model validation. We analyze how climate change and land management influence soil functions and ecosystem processes, highlighting differences between arable and grassland systems. Furthermore scenario simulations under future climate projections can provide insights into the potential resilience of different land-use systems, offering a basis for informing more sustainable management practices.