Spatial Patterns of Socioeconomic Vulnerability and Institutional Resilience in the EU – Evidence from the CARMINE project

Europe is the fastest growing continent and climate-related disasters such as wildfires, heatwaves, and floods are becoming increasingly frequent and severe, posing escalating threats to both ecosystems and human societies (EEA, 2024). Acute and chronic climate hazards highlight not only ecological vulnerabilities but also social and institutional weaknesses, testing the institutional capacity of communities to absorb and adapt.  The IPCC (2014) defines vulnerability as “the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected” and notes that Socio-Economic Vulnerability (SEV) is shaped by social, economic, and political factors that influence how people are exposed to hazards and how well they can adapt or recover. We approach the concept of SEV through the analytical lens of the 3 As & T framework (Bahadur et al., 2015), thus assessing the societal capacity to anticipate, adapt, absorb and transform in the face of climate risks and extreme events. Our analysis synthesizes different approaches and methods; however, we focus on the medium and long-term capacity of European regions to cope with climate hazards and enhance their environmental and socio-economic resilience. Using regional data (NUTS3 and NUTS2 level) we construct regional SEV profiles drawing upon the synthesis of established SEV frameworks and including a rich set of indicators measuring sensitivity and adaptive capacity. We adopt a two-step spatial analytical framework. First, we use Moran’s I to identify statistically significant spatial clustering of vulnerability and resilience across European regions, highlighting hotspots and cold spots and mapping the geographic concentration of climate-related risks. Second, we estimate a Spatial Durbin Error Model (SDEM) to examine the socioeconomic and institutional determinants of regional resilience, capturing both direct and spatial spillover effects of social capital, governance quality, institutional capacity, and economic diversification - factors that are often neglected in climate adaptation policy design. Finally, we utilize metropolitan area specific data from the HEU CARMINE project to elaborate on the interplay of specific SEV attributes and documented hazards for eight pilot regions. This complementary analysis acts as a ‘zoom-in’ on highly exposed urban systems, enabling comparisons across the eight CSAs and the derivation of transferable insights for targeted adaptation actions. The development of the SEV profiles is grounded in the participatory, multi-actor approach of the CARMINE Living Labs and the Stakeholder Community Hub, where stakeholders assess cross-sectoral interdependencies and uncertainties and link SEV characteristics to documented climate threats and impacts.  Our results underscore the importance of sound institutions to enhance the effectiveness of adaptation measures and reveal that resilience is shaped not only by local conditions but also by significant spatial spillover effects across regions.
Acknowledgements: This work has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon Europe programme under Grant Agreement No. 101137851 (CARMINE).