Advancing the EO-based Geohazard Digital Twin from Prototype to Pre-operational Platform

The  GET-it project (Geohazards Early Digital Twin Component) is devoted to build a Digital Twin for geohazards in the framework of the ESA Early Digital Twin Component (DTC) programme. The Geohazard Digital Twin is transitioning from a demonstration prototype to a shareable, pre-operational Earth Observation (EO)-based service platform. This transition has been initiated through the integration of the GET-it scenario modules within the Geohazards TEP (https://geohazards-tep.eu), a long-standing operational platform developed under ESA, and will continue through their future integration and federation with the Destination Earth (DestinE) framework. The project explores how EO data can effectively drive DTCs for volcanic and seismic geohazards within the Destination Earth framework.

The Geohazard DTC developed in GET-it is designed as a modular and customizable environment, capable of integrating multi-sensor EO data, primarily from the Copernicus programme, with established physical models and EO-driven analysis tools. The adoption of standardized input and output formats ensures interoperability and facilitates the uptake of DTC products by diverse user communities with different operational needs. These characteristics enable repeatable, timely EO-driven simulations and facilitate the integration of the Geohazard DTC into downstream pre-operational workflows.

The current prototype includes several scenario modules operating at increasing levels of EO data exploitation: GEOMOD, for modelling EO-derived geodetic signals; FALL3D, for volcanic ash and SO₂ dispersion constrained by EO observations; GPUFLOW, for lava flow modelling based on EO-derived effusion rates and topography; and DAMSAT, for EO-based change and damage detection. Together, these modules act as building blocks for pre-operational services, empowering stakeholders to explore realistic emergency scenarios and assess potential mitigation and adaptation strategies. 

A central aspect of GET-it is the systematic integration of stakeholder requirements into the DTC design. A structured engagement process, based on questionnaires and direct interactions, involved a broad range of public and private stakeholders, including civil protection authorities, aviation and transport stakeholders, infrastructure managers, insurance companies, energy providers, and decision-makers. All the scenario models were considered relevant, with FALL3D emerging as the most requested service. The collected feedback directly informed the definition of the scenario modules and the organization of a dedicated Demonstration Day, focused on the validation of EO-driven what-if scenarios.

The Geohazard DTC has been demonstrated through representative multi-hazard use cases, including the 2018 Mount Etna eruption, the 2021 La Palma eruption, and the 2016 Central Italy earthquake sequence. Based on these activities, a medium- to long-term roadmap is being defined, focusing on enhanced EO-driven simulations, advanced decision-support tools, interoperable visualization interfaces, scalable services, and extension to additional geohazards, in alignment with other DTC initiatives and community-building actions. This roadmap aims to consolidate the Geohazard DTC as a sustainable pre-operational platform, ready for future operational uptake.