Drivers and impacts of extreme events on Flade Isblink ice cap.

The Arctic is increasingly influenced by extreme events both in environmental forcing, and in the response in the cryosphere. Still, the mechanisms linking short-lived events in the different component of the Arctic system (atmosphere, land ice, ocean and sea ice) remain poorly understood. Within the  ESA-funded ARCTEX project we use a range of EO datasets and model outputs to identify extreme events and their impact on three different ice caps/ glaciers in the Arctic: The Flade Isblink and Austfonna ice caps and Nioghalvfjerdsfjorden outlet glacier.

Here, we present our findings over the Flade Isblink Ice cap in Northeastern Greenland. We present a comprehensive suite of EO-derived data sets over and around the ice cap, and wavelet analysis to identify extreme events, periodicity and regime shifts in these time series. One finding is the surge of Marsk Stig Bræ, which was initiated after 2021, and the subsequent response in the surface topography of the ice cap. We examine the potential drivers and consequences of this surge, with particular emphasis on the possible coupling between glacier dynamics, the drainage of a nearby subglacial lake, sea ice variability and ocean temperatures. Using a multi-sensor Earth Observation approach combined with regional climate model output, we analyse the temporal evolution of ice velocity, surface elevation, meltwater production, and subglacial hydrology from 2011 to 2025. This study demonstrates the value of integrated, high-temporal-resolution EO datasets for resolving rapid cryospheric change.