1,3,- 1School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of New South Wales, Australia (g.paget@unsw.edu.au)
- 2ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
- 3Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
- 4Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
- 5ARC Centre of Excellence for the Weather of the 21st Century, The Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
- 6Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
The ACCESS-ESM1.5 model of climate stabilisation after net-zero emissions demonstrates temperature evolution after net-zero, with significant regional variation in local mean and extreme temperature changes.
However, the extent to which changes in the magnitude of heat extremes are driven by changes in mean temperature has not previously been investigated in the stabilised net-zero model.
In analysing the relationship between mean temperature and heat extremes in this net-zero model, we find that in some regions, heat extremes do not change linearly with mean temperature. In the Antarctic and Southern Ocean regions, the mean temperature and extremes both exhibit a warming trend after net-zero, however extreme temperatures do not warm as quickly as the mean temperature. Conversely, over some land regions in the Northern Hemisphere, the mean temperature and extremes both exhibit a cooling trend, however extreme temperatures cool more quickly than mean temperatures.
By considering regional geography, we can understand the physical drivers of heat extremes including the role of sea ice and ice sheets, and understand physical limits on the temperature range of heat extremes in these regions.
How to cite: Paget, G., Zika, J., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S., and Alexander, L.: Investigating local drivers of heat extremes in a net-zero climate model, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-17772, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-17772, 2026.
