Stability landscapes: evidencing critical slowing down and ecological resilience in grassland ecosystems

Critical slowing down has been proposed as an early warning signal for critical transitions in ecosystems (tipping points) and for defining ecological resilience. However these concepts are difficult to define in ecological systems, which limits how they can be used operationally for advanced warning of changes in ecosystem function and composition. Here we use dense time-series satellite measurements of vegetation productivity in UK grasslands, combined with a dynamic linear model, to estimate ecosystem speed and construct stability landscapes: potential-like surfaces that quantify the geometry governing transitions in response to major droughts that provide empirical evidence for resilience concepts in real-world ecosystems. We anticipate the use of our approach to better understand and visualize ecosystem resilience and as a tool for identifying ecosystems in critical transition that can be targets for intervention, such as ecological restoration.