Catchment-scale patterns of climate vulnerability in human-impacted landscapes

Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of hydrological extremes, amplifying both flooding and drought risks. The vulnerability of landscapes to these hydrological disturbances depends on the climate robustness of these systems, which is defined by their resilience, resistance, and recovery potential to disturbances. Climate robustness is driven not only by climate forcing alone, but also through the interactions between hydrological regimes, landscape characteristics, and demographic pressures expressed through land and water use.

In the Netherlands, landscapes are highly engineered, with water levels, land use, and soil conditions controlled to support agriculture and human water consumption. Under current climatic changes, these landscapes are becoming increasingly strained, particularly in sandy areas in the south of the country where population pressures, warming, and drought frequency are intensifying. While national climate and demography scenarios for the future exist, the projected impacts and changes are challenging to translate at local and regional scales that are often more relevant for management.

Here, we present a catchment-scale, indicator-based approach to diagnose climate robustness of the study catchment under current conditions, and explore how directional changes in hydrological drivers and demographic changes may amplify or reduce landscape robustness in the future. We first combined ground water, soil, and land-use spatial indicators in a multi-criteria decision (MCDA) mapping analysis, which identified potentially vulnerable and climate-robust regions within the catchment. Preliminary results show that areas classified as vulnerable are predominantly associated with sandy soils, and agricultural and forested land. These areas also tend to be in close proximity to urban areas, highlighting a potential overlap between hydrologically sensitive landscapes and areas subject to more intensive land use.

In a next phase, we will use a gradient-based modelling approach to stress-test the indicators under plausible directional changes, based on key climatic and demographic pressures projected for the future. Overall, this approach identifies where human–water feedbacks are concentrated spatially, identifies dominant drivers for climate vulnerability, and highlights areas where targeted interventions may be most effective at catchment scales relevant for land and water management.