A continental analysis on water-related risks in Africa

Water resource management in Africa is under increasing pressure due to multiple factors, including rapid population growth, fast economic transformations, accelerating climate change, soaring pressure on ecosystems, and uprising political instability, all of which increase the vulnerability to water risks. Africa is now at a critical turning point where a new framework is needed to assess water risks. Multi-risk assessment can provide a more holistic understanding of how multiple hazards are interrelated to exposure and vulnerability. Currently, water risk assessment in Africa is still predominantly hazard-specific and sectorally fragmented. Systematic and continental-scale analyses that integrate multiple water-related risks across Africa remain limited.  

In this study, we conducted a continental-scale assessment to evaluate population exposure and vulnerability across African countries and major basins to eight water-related stressors: lack of drinking water, poor sanitation, droughts, overuse of water, floods, loss of groundwater, water pollution from nutrients, and organic pollution. To maximize policy compatibility and interlink different water risks to prevent unintended consequences, this analysis utilizes gridded high-resolution geospatial data and employs the multiplicative risk scheme of the United Nations Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and IPCC (risk = stress x exposure x vulnerability). By using statistical analysis, we identify high-risk regions and reveal spatial patterns in water stressors, vulnerability, and exposure. These regions are characterized by the convergence of high population density, low human development, and fragile governance.  

Our findings highlight the pressing need for integrated, regionally targeted policies and strategies that consider both biophysical stressors and socio-political vulnerability, providing a transferable framework for guiding future water policy and decision-making and supporting transboundary cooperation efforts across the continent.