Stochastic Energy-Balance Model With A Moving Ice Line

In SIAM J. Applied Dynamical Systems, 12 (2013), pp. 2068-2092, Widiasih proposed and analyzed a deterministic one-dimensional Budyko-Sellers energy-balance model with a moving ice line. In the present paper, we extend this model to a stochastic setting and study it within the framework of stochastic slow-fast systems. In the limit of a small parameter, we derive the effective ice-line dynamics as a solution to a stochastic differential equation. This stochastic formulation enables the investigation of coexisting (metastable) climate states, transition dynamics between them, stationary distributions, bifurcations, and the system’s sensitivity to perturbations. This talk is based on the joint work with M. Ritsch, SIAM J. Applied Dynamical Systems, 23(3), pp. 2061-2098.