Current and Future Risks of Storm Clustering in Western Europe.

European windstorms drive much of the region’s extreme weather, causing catastrophic winds and flooding.

Beyond individual hazards, sequences of windstorms, so-called storm clustering, can make landfall along European coasts and propagate inland, inflicting and compounding socioeconomic impacts. This is directly relevant to local recovery and to understanding how impacts accumulate over short timescales. While several studies have examined how storm intensity may change under future climate conditions, far less attention has been paid to storm clustering, the intensity of clustered storms, and the associated risk.

In this study, we use 2,000 years of climate simulations performed with CESM under present-day and future conditions (100 integrations for 1991–2000 and another 100 for 2091–2100, based on the CMIP5 RCP8.5 scenario) to identify and quantify socioeconomic impacts in Western Europe from extreme winds and their clusters. This large sample provides more robust statistics for detecting sub-monthly clustered storms.

Our objectives are twofold: first, to analyse the physical characteristics of storm clusters; and second, to quantify their socioeconomic relevance in terms of risk and impacts.