Using Quantum Annealing for Identifying Plausible Earthquake Rupture Paths in Fault Networks

Earthquake rupture forecasting is a critical component of seismic hazard analysis and requires identifying physically plausible rupture paths across complex fault networks. At its core, this task could be formulated as a large-scale combinatorial optimization problem, which involves selecting an optimal subset of fault segments from a set of candidates. Such problems pose significant challenges for traditional algorithms, as the number of admissible multi-fault ruptures grows combinatorially. Current operational workflows rely on locally applied plausibility filters. While computationally efficient, such greedy local heuristics risk excluding globally competitive rupture scenarios, particularly in regions with dense fault connectivity and competing rupture pathways. 

This work investigates whether quantum annealing hardware can serve as a sampling accelerator for exploring the ensemble of physically plausible ruptures beyond what is currently accessible to classical approaches. Designing a problem formulation that remains scientifically meaningful while respecting the constraints of current quantum hardware (size, noise, etc.) is nontrivial, and naïve encodings often collapse under these limitations. We encode rupture plausibility modeling as low energy solutions to a quadratic unconstrained binary optimization (QUBO) problem defined on a fault-network middle graph. Binary variables represent activated fault segments, while local interaction terms encode Coulomb stress transfer (as a proxy for pairwise rupture compatibility), continuity preferences, and branching behavior. Here, we adopt a classical-quantum hybrid workflow: the quantum annealer is used to sample globally competitive rupture candidates, while classical post-processing implements physical constraints to filter out non-physical ruptures. 

The workflow is demonstrated on a subset of the fault network used in the 2023 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model including over 200 fault segments, using both simulated thermal and quantum annealing on D-Wave hardware. Results show that our hardware-aware formulation and conditioning enable robust sampling on comparatively large fault-network instances. Views on quantum computing are polarized: some overstate its power, while others dismiss it as impractical. Our results help bridge this by establishing a concrete, testable pathway for integrating quantum annealing into rupture-modeling workflows on existing purpose-built quantum devices.

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This work is supported by the ICSC National Research Centre for High Performance Computing, Big Data and Quantum Computing (CN00000013, CUP D53C22001300005) within the European Union-NextGenerationEU program (National Recovery and Resilience Plan (PNRR) - Mission 4 Component 2 Investment 1.4.)