Mapping future crop water footprints under alternative climate futures in Upper Syr Darya Basin, Central Asia

Climate change will reshape agricultural water consumption in Central Asia, yet the impacts on crop water footprints remain largely unquantified. The Upper Syr Darya Basin, a critical agricultural region where irrigated cotton and other water-intensive crops depend on a shared river system, faces accelerating water stress as climate variables shift dramatically by 2100. To assess future agricultural sustainability and inform transboundary water allocation decisions, this study projects spatiotemporal changes in crop water footprints under alternative climate scenarios. The ACEA crop water productivity model is implemented and forced with downscaled climate projections to quantify how variations in climate variables will alter green (rainfed) and blue (irrigated) water footprints across cropping systems. Expected outcomes include spatial-temporal maps identifying agricultural regions where future water scarcity will intensify, shifts in crop water consumption patterns, and areas of heightened vulnerability to climate-driven water stress. These projections provide critical evidence for climate-adaptive agricultural planning and transboundary water governance, enabling policymakers to anticipate sectoral water competition and design sustainable irrigation management strategies under alternative climate futures.