Between groundwater sustainability and irrigation expansion: Evidence from eastern India

India is the world’s largest consumer of groundwater for irrigation. Census data reveal an increasing trend in the number of deep tubewells being constructed, raising concerns for the sustainability of groundwater resources. Where regulatory limits on the number of wells or extraction volumes are absent, energy policies governing the availability of electricity for pumping may present an alternative tool for groundwater management, but their effectiveness remains unclear. Eastern India, a region that historically lacked groundwater development despite being touted as possessing great potential for irrigation expansion, has witnessed a recent increase in deep-well drilling even in the absence of electricity subsidies that promoted irrigation expansion in other parts of the country. Here, we study this paradox and its potential implications for sustainability using a novel longitudinal dataset combining hydrogeological and socioeconomic data. We study the growth in irrigation infrastructure between 2000 and 2018, its impact on current and future groundwater stocks and accessibility, and the influence of energy pricing mechanisms for groundwater management. We also examine the geographic distribution of well expansion and its impact on the spatial extent and intensity of cropping activities. Drawing insights from physically based groundwater modeling and econometric analysis, our results underscore the tension between irrigation development to support food security, livelihoods, and the threat of runaway groundwater depletion. Our results also highlight the limitations of using energy pricing as the primary lever for groundwater governance. Lastly, we find that the expansion of wells is uneven across lines of existing socioeconomic inequities in caste and land ownership, emphasizing the need for groundwater governance policies to be anchored not just on hydrogeological factors but on socioeconomic drivers as well.