Fine-scale covariation of residential heating emissions and socioeconomic variables across Germany: implications for urban climate policy

Residential heating is a large source of greenhouse gas emissions and a priority for urban climate change mitigation efforts. However, effective planning of decarbonization policies is hampered by the lack of fine-resolution emission estimates at sub-city scales. Such spatially disaggregated data are essential for analyzing how emission patterns co-vary with important social, economic, and demographic characteristics within cities, which is needed for designing targeted and equitable policy interventions.

We use high-resolution population and building data from the 2022 German census to estimate carbon dioxide emissions from residential buildings across Germany. We then explore how emission patterns covary with socioeconomic and demographic variables relevant for policy design.

Our analysis reveals significant spatial heterogeneity in per capita emissions within cities. We find that areas with higher rates of home ownership exhibit elevated per capita emissions, suggesting these neighborhoods represent prime targets for building renovation incentives directed at homeowners. Additionally, we observe higher per capita emissions in areas with larger proportions of senior residents (>66 years old), who typically consume more energy for heating. This pattern indicates that high-emitting buildings (larger, older buildings heated with carbon-intensive energy carriers) tend to spatially overlap with populations likely to have intensive heating behaviors, potentially compounding resulting emissions.

These findings underscore the importance of analyzing urban carbon dioxide emission patterns at fine spatial scales and examining their spatial correlation with relevant socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Our analysis reveals sub-city emission patterns with clear implications for policy design. Effective decarbonization strategies must account for these spatial patterns to plan interventions that account both for building infrastructure and occupant characteristics, ensuring efficient resource allocation and equitable climate action across diverse urban settings.