How Vegetation Mediated Human Settlement Responses to Holocene Climate Change: A Quantitative Spatiotemporal Analysis from the East Asian Transitional Zone

Understanding how past societies adapted to climatic and environmental changes offers valuable perspectives for contemporary sustainability challenges. This study investigates the long-term interplay between climate, vegetation, and human settlement patterns in the Liaoxi Corridor—a sensitive forest-steppe transition zone at the northern margin of the East Asian Summer Monsoon. We provide a quantitative assessment of how Holocene climate variability influenced human habitat preferences through mediating changes in vegetation cover.

We integrated multi-proxy datasets to address this question. Thirty high-resolution pollen records were analyzed using the REVEALS model to reconstruct vegetation dynamics across the Holocene. Archaeological site distributions were examined through kernel density estimation and spatial clustering techniques to identify settlement aggregation patterns. For each period, we calculated site elevation, slope, and distance to rivers to assess topographic and hydrological preferences. To synthesize these variables, we applied a Human Ecological Niche Model (HENM), which allowed us to evaluate the relative importance of environmental factors in driving settlement location and to detect shifts in human habitat selection over time.

The results highlight several key findings. First, the forest-steppe boundary shifted markedly in response to Holocene monsoon variability, with forest expansion during humid phases and steppe dominance during arid intervals. Second, human settlements consistently clustered in environmentally favorable niches, but these niches changed over time. During warm-wet periods associated with forest expansion, populations dispersed into upland areas. In contrast, cooler and drier conditions led to settlement contraction into lowland river valleys, reflecting a strategic shift toward resource-security under climatic stress. Third, the HENM identified vegetation type, water accessibility, and gentle terrain as the primary factors influencing site location, with their relative weights varying across climatic phases.

This study underscores the role of vegetation as a critical intermediary between climate and human behavior. By quantifying past human-environment linkages in a climatically sensitive region, we offer a refined framework for understanding adaptive responses to environmental change. These insights not only deepen our knowledge of East Asian prehistory but also inform current models of landscape resilience and sustainable habitat planning under future climate scenarios. In an era of rapid global change, such long-term perspectives are essential for anticipating human-environment feedbacks and fostering resilient socio-ecological systems.