Global evidence of operational multi-risk Impact-based Forecasting and Warning systems

Impact-based forecasting and warning systems (IbFWs) are transforming early warnings by turning hazard forecasts into expected impacts, making alerts actionable and risk-informed while advancing the UN’s Early Warnings for All (EW4All) vision for 2027. However, their operational maturity and extension from single-hazard to multi-risk contexts remain uneven. This work builds on international collaboration through the Weather and Climate Science for Service Partnership (WCSSP) India programme, a UK–India initiative supporting the development of risk-based forecasting for high-impact weather in multi-risk contexts.

This study presents the synthesis of two global surveys on multi-risk IbFWs, capturing perspectives from 143 practitioners in 68 countries and 64 researchers across 25 countries. The surveys explored global experiences, evidence, and challenges in developing and implementing multi-risk IbFWs and were implemented in the six official United Nations languages to maximise accessibility and reduce language barriers.

The results reveal gaps globally, with no fully operational multi-risk IbFWs identified that provide detailed, quantified forecasts and warnings. Most current platforms manage multiple hazards primarily as independent events and incorporate only limited impact-based functionalities, underscoring significant opportunities for enhancement and innovation. Insights from 18 countries illustrate diverse tools and approaches for multi-hazard communication, while exposing differences in interpreting “multi-risk” and “impact-based” concepts. Respondents agree that future progress and innovation relies on improved availability of impact data and stronger multi-risk assessment capacity.

The survey findings provide actionable insights to accelerate the development of multi-risk IbFWs, highlighting the need for improved impact data availability and integrated risk assessment. These advances are essential to protect communities from weather and climate hazards through effective early warnings, timely action, and stronger resilience.