Advancing an Implementation- and Stakeholder-Focused Approach to Modelling Just Transitions

Just transition has emerged as a central concept in international climate discourse and is increasingly framed as a necessary precondition for accelerating climate action. These debates are unfolding alongside a critical evolution in climate and energy modelling: a shift away from an exclusive focus on carbon management towards a broader interrogation of the social, economic, and political dimensions that shape real-world policy choices. This evolution reflects a growing recognition that modelling insights must be easily interpretable and aligned with stakeholder priorities if they are to meaningfully inform decision-making.  

Our work at the research–policy interface highlights a gap between modelling outputs and policy uptake. Scenarios that are perceived by stakeholders as abstract, overly technical, or misaligned with political, institutional and local realities frequently fail to be integrated into policy processes. By contrast, an implementation-focused and participatory approach, grounded in systematic stakeholder engagement, can surface concrete priorities and constraints, which are essential for translating modelling insights into collaborative climate action. 

This paper presents key conclusions from the Just Transition Compass, a co-creative manual for action designed to support the implementation of just transitions. The Compass was developed through an extensive consultation process, including four international events held across three continents, culminating in its launch at COP30. More than 300 stakeholders, including government negotiators, policymakers, practitioners, private sector representatives, and civil society actors, participated in the process. This enabled a structured exploration of how just transition principles are interpreted across regions and governance levels, and how these principles can be transformed in concrete governance frameworks, policy interventions and financing opportunities.  

The key takeaways from the Compass speak directly to urgent political, economic, and social debates that ought to be better reflected in climate and energy modelling. Stakeholders emphasised the importance of recognising the co-benefits and economic opportunities of the transition; ensuring climate action acts as an enabler of the Sustainable Development Goals rather than a competing agenda; addressing cross-border impacts of mitigation measures; reframing industrial policy as a basis for multilateral cooperation; reversing historical injustices by tackling inequalities embedded in global supply chains; and supporting economic diversification and energy security, particularly in transition-dependent economies. 

These diverse insights point to a shared lesson: advancing global climate action requires first understanding people’s vision for a prosperous, just transition. This implies moving beyond modelling frameworks centred solely on emissions trajectories, towards approaches that integrate multiple dimensions of justice, development, and governance. Emerging initiatives, such as the NEWPATHWAYS Horizon Europe project, demonstrate the potential of such co-creative approaches. We argue that, at a time of increasing global fragmentation, participatory modelling can become a critical tool to unblock negotiations and support effective, future-proof climate policies.