Projecting Climate Hazards in Azraq, Jordan: Multi‑Scenario Changes in Extreme Events and Socioeconomic Vulnerability

Azraq, in eastern Jordan, is a uniquely fragile socio‑ecological system shaped by its arid climate, groundwater‑dependent oasis, and rapidly shifting land‑use patterns. Decades of groundwater over‑abstraction has led to the collapse of the Azraq Oasis in the late 1980s/early 1990s, triggering profound and lasting consequences for local livelihoods of the multi-ethnic communities living there, and leading to pronounced changes in both socioeconomic activities and the demographic composition of the region.

In recent decades, the area has experienced intensifying climate‑related stresses, including droughts, flash floods, and increasingly frequent extreme heat events.

This study investigates the intensifying threat of climate-induced hazards in Azraq, focusing on recent extreme events and multi-decadal future projections. Utilizing high-resolution (10km) regional climate models (RCMs) simulations over the Mashreq domain, we analyze two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways: SSP2-4.5 (moderate emissions) and SSP5-8.5 (high emissions).

Projections for the near future to mid 21st century show a significant increasing trend in the average temperature, and in the  frequency of "very hot days" (Tmax > 40°C) particularly under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. While total annual rainfall does not show a clear significant trend, the amount of highest precipitation rain and the rain intensity is projected to increase, highlighting the risk of flash floods. The 

The study further explores how these physical hazards intersect with current socioeconomic trends in Azraq and their vulnerability under these extremes. In particular we focus on how past experiences of the local population may shape their resilience strategies and what initiatives can support their adaptation efforts.