A framework to analyze the evolution of urban systems for resilience assessment

In past decades, urbanisation has risen around the world 1, increasing risk and exposure to shocks 2. Resilience theory offers valuable perspectives for understanding complex socio-ecological systems and their sustainable management 3,4,5, and for improving adaptation to climate change 6. Urban resilience refers to the ability of social, ecological and technical components to withstand, adapt to, and recover from disturbances across spatial and temporal scales 7. Studies have investigated sets of indicators that measure system dimensions separately to assess resilience against hazards (see 8,9). This method allows for the assessment of multiple system components at a given point in time. However, these components interact across spatial and temporal scales, creating temporal trade-offs and path-dependencies. Investigating these dynamics can significantly enhance the understanding of how urban resilience evolves and how its drivers operate over time 4,10,11,12. To advance urban resilience assessment, research should integrate multiple system components and examine their dynamics across different locations, enabling a more contextual understanding of resilience trajectories. In this study, I propose a methodological framework that uses openly published historical information by municipalities to track changes in urban systems over the past 30 years in European cities. The results can inform researchers, urban planners, and policymakers about how changes in the built environment have influenced social and environmental conditions over time, and how these changes are linked to increasing vulnerabilities and risks across urban systems. 

References

[1] Liu, X. et al. "High-spatiotemporal-resolution mapping of global urban change from 1985 to 2015." Nat Sustain. 2020;3(7):564–70. 
[2] Elmqvist, T. et al. "Urbanization in and for the Anthropocene." NPJ Urban Sustain. 2021;1(1):6.
[3] Folke, C. et al. "Resilience thinking: integrating resilience, adaptability and transformability." Ecol Soc. 2010;15(4).
[4] Chelleri, L. et al. "Resilience trade-offs: addressing multiple scales and temporal aspects of urban resilience." Environ Urban. 2015;27(1):181–98.
[5] Elmqvist, T. et al. "Sustainability and resilience for transformation in the urban century." Nat Sustain. 2019;2(4):267–73.
[6] Leichenko, R. "Climate change and urban resilience." Curr Opin Environ Sustain. 2011;3(3):164–8. 
[7] Meerow, S., Newell, J.P. and Stults, M. "Defining urban resilience: A review." Landsc Urban Plan. 2016;147:38–49.  
[8]  Osei-Kyei, R. et al. "Critical analysis of the emerging flood disaster resilience assessment indicators." Int J Disaster Resil Built Environ. 2025;16(3):417–36.
[9]  Zhu, S. et al. "Enhancing urban flood resilience: A holistic framework incorporating historic worst flood to Yangtze River Delta, China." Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2021;61:102355.
[10] Meerow, S, and Newell, J.P. "Urban resilience for whom, what, when, where, and why?" Urban Geogr. 2019;40(3):309–29.  
[11]  Sharifi, A. "Resilience of urban social-ecological-technological systems (SETS): A review." Sustain Cities Soc. 2023;99:104910.  
[12]  Casali, Y., Aydin, N.Y., and Comes, T. "A data-driven approach to analyse the co-evolution of urban systems through a resilience lens: A Helsinki case study." Environ Plan B Urban Anal City Sci. 2024;51(9):2074–91.