Why Do Compound Disasters Keep Recurring?Structural Diagnosis and Spatial Strategies via Systems Analysis and Nature-Based Solutions

Climate change is no longer about single hazards—it is about compound disasters that escalate through interlinked shocks and delays in recovery. These risks do not distribute randomly, but concentrate persistently in certain places and among vulnerable groups. This keynote argues that compound disasters must be understood not as isolated events, but as a structural process shaped by coupled long-term pressures and short-term pulses.

To unpack this, I use the press–pulse disturbance framework: chronic pressures like urbanization, loss of ecological function, and impervious surface expansion gradually shift system states, while acute shocks like heatwaves or floods convert these vulnerabilities into real damage. Critically, these interactions are not linear—pressures amplify shock impacts, and shocks reshape the very systems that buffer or propagate the next disaster. However, explaining this mechanism is not enough for action. To move from diagnosis to implementation, we need a planning-oriented logic that translates drivers, system conditions, and intervention options into concrete spatial choices—this is where the PSR framework becomes essential.

Through a Pressure–State–Response (PSR) lens, I propose a systems approach that connects risk drivers, system conditions, and intervention points. Here, Nature-based Solutions (NbS) are reframed not as surface-level greening, but as spatial tools that weaken amplification loops, change system trajectories, and accelerate recovery. PSR allows for actionable diagnosis: identifying where and how to intervene, and what type of NbS strategy will be most effective.

The keynote presents empirical cases across multiple hazards:

             •            Heatwaves show why thermal risk clusters spatially, and how specific NbS configurations reduce exposure.

             •            Urban flooding reveals how land-cover shifts and disrupted hydrology amplify risk—and how spatially connected NbS networks restore regulation.

             •            Wildfire cases highlight cross-boundary escalation and how spatial design can transform spread and recovery dynamics.

             •            Biodiversity & ecosystem function are revealed not as side benefits, but as structural determinants of resilience.

Together, these cases clarify both the mechanisms and the spatial leverage points; translating them into action requires a decision framework.

Decision-support tools—such as scenario modeling, hotspot mapping, and land-use optimization—translate systems analysis into grounded policy options. Across these examples, resilience emerges not from single interventions, but from reconfiguring feedbacks: robustness via regulating functions, redundancy through distributed networks, resourcefulness via multifunctional design, and rapidity through faster recovery paths.

In sum, this keynote presents a new logic for addressing compound disasters: not just what we should do, but why systems respond the way they do, and how spatial NbS strategies can intervene in those dynamics. Moving from reactive planning to anticipatory systems thinking is not only urgent—it is possible.