Towards physic-based ground-motion simulations for the Scutari-Pec Fault System, Eastern Adria

The Eastern Adriatic region has been historically affected by strong destructive earthquakes, including the M6.4 1667 Dubrovnik earthquake, the M6.6 1905 Shkodra event, and the M6.4 2019 Durrës earthquake. Some of those destructive events are associated with the Scutari-Pec Fault System (Albania). This tectonic structure extends sub-parallel to the coastline, in the SW-NE direction, through the Dinaride-Hellenide transition. This fault system corresponds to a compressive and transform fault system near the Adriatic Sea that changes the tectonics to an extensional regime towards the East. The distribution of focal mechanisms  of microseismicity recorded in the region (Serpelloni et al, 2007) evidences the complex tectonics (Grund et al., 2023). 

As part of the German SPP project DEFORM, we plan to simulate 3D dynamic earthquake scenarios to study the rupture propagation of large earthquakes across the Scutari-Pec Fault System. We apply the open-source SeisSol code to generate synthetic seismograms up to frequencies of 2 Hz. We will specifically investigate the effect of variability of locking depth as a crucial parameter for determining the earthquake potential of the fault system. Ground motion for dynamic rupture scenarios with characteristics similar to the destructive reported events will be  estimated, in particular for the most populated cities located within 50 km of the central fault system. This presentation is a first step toward these goals and  aims to provide relevant information for such simulations, which may complement seismic hazard assessment in the region.