Global amplification of water whiplash revealed by terrestrial water storage

Hydroclimate volatility, characterized by abrupt transitions between dry and wet extremes, poses a growing threat to global water security. Yet, current understanding of these transitions largely relies on meteorological metrics, which often fail to capture the full complexity of hydrological processes, land surface memory, and human water management. Here, we present a global assessment of water whiplash through the lens of terrestrial water storage (TWS). By integrating hydrological modeling with data-driven approaches, we reconstructed a comprehensive long-term TWS dataset to identify these events and account for delayed hydrological responses. Our results reveal a widespread intensification of global water whiplash in recent decades, with a substantial further increase projected under high-warming scenarios. Attribution analysis indicates that while climate change acts as the dominant driver of this amplification, human water management plays a critical role in spatially modulating these events, capable of either significantly mitigating or exacerbating local volatilities. We identify key hotspots of intensification in the tropics and high latitudes, encompassing extensive agricultural regions and major river basins. These findings establish TWS as a vital integrative indicator for monitoring abrupt hydrological transitions and underscore the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies to navigate an increasingly volatile hydroclimate.