1,2,1,3,4,1,1,- 1GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Geomechanics and Scientififc Drilling, Potsdam, Germany (bohnhoff@gfz-potsdam.de)
- 2Free University Berlin, Institute of Geological Sciences, Berlin, Germany
- 3RWTH University of Aachen, Aachen, Germany
- 4Ruhr-University Bochum, Bochum, Germany
- 5University Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
- 6AFAD, Ankara, Türkiye
- 7University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California, USA
The Main Marmara fault (MMF) in northwestern Türkiye poses the highest seismic risk in broader Europe. The 2025 MW 6.2 was the largest earthquake along the MMF in >60 years. We integrated observations from multiple temporal scales including the decade-long evolution of M > 5 earthquakes, their rupture dynamics and aftershock patterns. We show a series of eastward propagating M>5 events and a gradual eastward partial rupture of the MMF over the last ~15 years. The seismically active portion of the fault includes creeping and transitional segments with some of the most recent seismicity located near the presumably locked Princes Islands segment south of Istanbul that has the potential to generate a M~7 earthquake. Our analysis highlights the necessity of real-time monitoring of this part of the MMF.
How to cite: Bohnhoff, M., Martinez-Garzon, P., Chen, X., Becker, D., Nunez-Jara, S., Kartal, R., Turker, E., Dresen, G., Ben-Zion, Y., Jara, J., Cotton, F., Kadirioglu, F., and Kilic, T.: Progressive eastward rupture of the Main Marmara fault toward Istanbul, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-18938, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-18938, 2026.
