Severe yield loss every other year through 2039 in the Austrian agriculture based on SSP3-7.0

Austria is experiencing increasingly frequent and prolonged drought periods as well as a rising number of heat days, both of which adversely affect agricultural productivity. The magnitude of these impacts depends on crop-specific growing periods and stress tolerances. Here, we assess how projected climate conditions during 1990-2039, assuming the shared socio-economic pathway SSP3-7.0 for the future period, influence yield expectations for winter wheat, spring barley, soybean, maize, potatoes, and grassland in Austria.

Meteorological forcing is derived from the high-resolution General Circulation Model "Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin", developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. The data are statistically downscaled to a spatial resolution of 250 m and daily temporal resolution using Quantile Delta Mapping, with an observation-based in-house reference dataset for the historical period 1990-2019. Crop phenology, soil water balance, and combined heat and drought stress are simulated using the Agricultural Risk Information System. Phenological stage entry dates are computed from accumulated excess temperatures calibrated against near-surface air temperature observations and satellite-based remote sensing data for the years 2020, 2021, and 2023.

The projections indicate increasing levels of crop stress accompanied by enhanced interannual variability. Winter wheat is least affected by combined heat and drought stress due to its relatively early maturity. However, drought and heat extremes lead to substantial yield reductions across all modeled crops in approximately half of the projected years. Overall, potential benefits of warmer temperatures during early growing stages are outweighed by increasing heat and drought stress later in the season.