Sport adaptation to extreme heat in a warming world: Can Cortina d’Ampezzo continue to host the Winter Olympic Games?

Extreme heat exacerbated by climate change is one of the greatest threats to the global sports industry. There are two contrasting seasonal challenges facing the sports industry. In the case of winter sports, increasing temperatures due to climate change lead to reduced natural snow cover and ice formation, as well as causing artificial snow and ice to melt. Meanwhile, the effect of extreme heat on athletes impacts summer sports, with high temperatures causing exertional heat illnesses (EHI).

The impact extreme warming is having on winter sports in particular, is already prevalent. Recent Winter Olympic Games have been severely impacted by extreme warming events, such as heat waves in the case of Sochi 2018, and as host locations are selected up to a decade before hosting, significant changes can occur within that timeframe. 

This research examines the last 30 years of temperature and snow depth in order to evaluate the feasibility of minimum snow depth requirements occurring naturally in the location of Cortina d'Ampezzo for the upcoming Winter Olympic and Paralympic Games in 2026. Subsequently, a selection of individual CMIP6 models for the next 50 years are analysed to evaluate the feasibility of this location continuing to host major sporting events that require snow depths for athlete safety, and whether this can be facilitated by natural snow alone or if artificial snow will be required.  This analysis involved the creation of a snow model in R to estimate future snow accumulation and melt in the region.

Additionally, due to the Olympics and Paralympics occurring in this venue in February and March 2026 this study is in a unique position to report from the event itself and evaluate how the previous 30 years of observations link with the reality on the ground. There has also been an opportunity to complete a mixed-methods study adding a layer of human experience by completing surveys and interviews of athletes and coaches competing in these games. As well as this the quantitative and qualitative data can be brought together in an ArcGIS StoryMap in order to illustrate whether Cortina d’Ampezzo can still host the Winter Olympic Games in the future.  

This research has the potential to expose the need for adaptation of sports infrastructure and sporting regulations to deal with the threat of extreme heat as a result of climate change.