GorgonOps and the BIGG project: Physics-based magnetosphere modelling for operational space weather forecasting

To fully understand and predict the behaviour of the near-Earth space environment in changing solar wind conditions, physics-based modelling is an extremely powerful tool. This can come at considerable computational expense, often making it unsuitable in operational contexts. Recent efforts in transforming research to operations (R2O), however, have produced several 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) magnetosphere models optimised to run using only modest computational resource. One such model is GorgonOps, developed at Imperial College London. With real time solar wind measurements at L1 as inputs, the model simulates the behaviour of Earth’s magnetosphere in faster than real time, making it extremely valuable for space weather forecasting. GorgonOps is currently undergoing integration at the UK Met Office and will soon be deployed as part of the Bergen-Imperial Global Geospace (BIGG) project. 

BIGG is a collaborative effort with the University of Bergen, funded under the ESA Space Safety Programme, to provide new forecasting products to the ESA Space Weather Service Network. It combines GorgonOps with another MHD model, the Space Weather Modelling Framework (SWMF). The two run simultaneously, creating forecasting products relevant for sectors such as LEO satellites and power infrastructure, including thermospheric Joule heating, Kp, and dB/dt at a range of synthetic ground stations. In this presentation, we will demonstrate the newly developed BIGG system and associated model developments. This includes an interactive visualisation dashboard as well as an API service, allowing users to retrieve the latest forecasts instantly. The multi-model federated approach is such that it can be expanded to incorporate new models, further increasing forecast diversity and redundancy to ensure reliable service provision to Europe and beyond.