Adaptation to warming climate: analyzing minimum mortality temperature in Taiwan

The rising mortality risk associated with global warming has emerged as a critical threat to public health landscape. The minimum mortality temperature (MMT) indicates the optimal temperature with the lowest mortality risk under long-term climate stress normally considered a proxy for adaption capacity. This study uses the MMT to analyze social factors in shaping temperature adaptation across Taiwan.

To derive the MMT, this study uses daily mortality data for non-accidental causes across gender and all age groups in Taiwan from 2008 to 2023, together with ambient temperature data, while controlling relative humidity, wind speed, and air pollution. Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM) combined with meta-regression are applied to analyze the temperature–mortality relationship to derive regional MMT in Taiwan.

The results show significant differences adaptation in the patterns of MMTs between special municipalities and non-metropolitan counties. Marked variation are also observed between gender and disease groups, showing difference adaptation conditions across Taiwan. These findings have important implications for public health planning and climate adaptation strategies.