Environmental Geodata-Based Location Suitability Analysis for Archaeological Sites in the Southern Levant

Site preservation and terrain characteristics are primary factors influencing the spatial distribution and discoverability of Late Pleistocene archaeological sites. To predict site expectancy across extensive areas, such as the southern Levant, this study integrates archaeological on-site analysis, with geoarchaeology and geomorphology using spatial analysis. We present a predictive suitability model, derived from a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), designed to identify areas with high potential for Upper Palaeolithic sites in the Eastern Mediterranean and its arid margins. By incorporating data from various prominent Upper Palaeolithic sites in the diverse study area, eight parameters were evaluated for their significance: geomorphology, hydrogeology, drainage network, vegetation zone, elevation, as well as DEM derivates such as aspect, slope inclination, and terrain ruggedness. Statistical analysis reveals a significant divergence between the spatial distribution of sites and natural terrain position factors. This finding allows for the definition of parameter classes associated with high site expectancy, which were then incorporated into the predictive model. The resulting site location suitability maps reinforces the potential for a detailed study by utilising larger site datasets and enhanced spatial information to investigate to which part archaeological site distribution in such an heterogenous landscape from desert to Mediterranean forest, can be related to prehistoric human site selection, site preservation or survey bias.