The Health and Economic Cost of PM2.5 in Kazakhstan: Identifying Source-Driven Mitigation Priorities

Ambient fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) exposure is a leading global health risk, requiring integrative frameworks that link atmospheric science, epidemiology, and socioeconomic analysis to enable effective mitigation. Despite this global attention, Central Asia faces a knowledge gap regarding the dominant sources of PM_2.5 pollution due to the scarcity of related research. This study applies advanced source apportionment, health impact modeling, and multi-criteria decision-making analysis to quantify the health and economic burdens and mitigation strategies resulting from persistent PM_2.5 pollution in Kazakhstan’s two largest urban centers, Almaty and Astana.

The study employed Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF), HYSPLIT trajectory, and Conditional Probability Function analysis to characterize PM_2.5 sources [1]. An extensive year-long sampling campaign (August 2022–July 2023) confirmed that annual PM_2.5 concentrations exceeded the World Health Organization (WHO) guideline (5 µg/m³) by 7.1 times in Almaty and 3.9 times in Astana. PMF identified five distinct sources in both cities, with coal and biomass combustion emerging as the overall predominant contributors to PM_2.5. In Almaty, sources included the urban atmosphere (20%), power plants (18%), residential heating (16%), and exhaust emissions (14%), with the valley topography exacerbating pollutant accumulation. In Astana, contributions were distributed among heating, regional/local power plants, and traffic emissions (exhaust/non-exhaust), each contributed 20%, and industrial emissions (18%), with HYSPLIT analysis confirming the influence of regional industrial emissions originating from areas such as Karagandy and Pavlodar.

The subsequent health risk assessment, quantified using the Global Exposure Mortality Model (GEMM), showed that PM_2.5-attributable excess mortality was 2108±144 deaths annually in Almaty and 676±41 deaths in Astana (2022-2024) [2]. These fatality rates significantly exceeded those from road traffic accidents and HIV/AIDS in both cities. The corresponding economic losses, quantified using the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) approach, were estimated at USD 2.8-4.6 billion per year for Almaty and USD 0.9-1.5 billion for Astana. Achieving the WHO limit could prevent 1642-2195 deaths and yield annual economic savings exceeding USD 3.8 billion.

The DEMATEL-ANP analysis, based on responses from 20 international experts, assessed the interaction among key mitigation measures [2]. It identified that effective air quality policies must prioritize pollution-purification efficiency, manage capital costs, and minimize the risks of secondary pollution, identified as the primary criteria driving systemic improvements. The findings emphasize the urgent need for comprehensive air quality management, particularly fossil fuel phase-out initiatives. High-capital interventions, such as the planned modernization of Almaty's CHPP-2 to gas in 2026, are critical, as the resulting economic savings from reduced health burdens (USD 1066-6300 million) significantly exceed the modernization cost (USD 703.6 million).

Acknowledgments

This research was funded by the Science Committee of the Ministry of Higher Education and Science of the Republic of Kazakhstan (Grant No. AP23486720, 2024-2026).

References

 [1]   K. Tursun et al. Dominant sources of PM_2.5 in Kazakhstan’s urban cities: A PMF and HYSPLIT-based study for air quality management in Central Asia, Urban Clim 64 (2025) 102706.

[2]   A. Muratuly et al. Urban PM_2.5 pollution in Kazakhstan: health burden and economic costs, Environ. Sci: Adv. (2025).