Asymmetric Hydroclimatic Transitions in Europe: Insights into Recovery and System Memory

Transitions from dry to wet states challenge water management practices and can lead to severe impacts. Recent studies have investigated dry–wet transitions from a meteorological perspective and focused on the transition itself. By contrast, how the hydroclimatic system behaves before and after the transition remains understudied. Here, we study where and why hydroclimatic transitions in Europe display asymmetric pre- and post-transition behavior using large-sample climate model simulations under pre-industrial, historical, and future climates. Our results show that hydroclimatic transitions across Europe are frequently characterized by asymmetric behavior around regime shifts, rather than balanced recovery. This indicates that some regions experience rapid recovery following dry–wet transitions, while others exhibit persistent anomalies beyond the transition itself. This pattern suggests that hydroclimatic recovery is conditioned by antecedent states, with systems retaining memory of prior dryness or wetness. As a result, transitions may be followed by either abrupt intensification of wet conditions or slow and incomplete recovery, implying differing propensities for post-transition flood amplification or prolonged drought persistence.