2,3,3,3- 1Research Institute of the University of Bucharest, Division of Earth, Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania (mirela.vasile@geo.unibuc.ro)
- 2Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland
- 3Faculty of Geography, University of Bucharest, Bucharest, Romania
Climate-driven transitions in Arctic soil states, from frozen to intermediate and thawed conditions, pose significant threats to slope stability in permafrost regions. As permafrost degrades, slope structural integrity weakens, elevating landslide risk and other geohazards. This study analyzes long-term trends in soil freeze-thaw dynamics across the Arctic to identify areas vulnerable to future slope instability and inform infrastructure planning, resource management, and hazard mitigation strategies.
We utilized SMOS brightness temperature data from the CATDS dataset and SMOS L3 Freeze-Thaw State products from ESA, analyzing normalized polarization ratio (NPR) and freeze-intermediate-thaw (FT) classifications from both ascending and descending orbits. Trend detection employed two complementary approaches: the Mann-Kendall non-parametric test for monotonic trends and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks for capturing complex temporal patterns. Analyses were conducted at monthly and seasonal scales across individual pixels and spatial clusters (3×3, 5×5, and 7×7 pixels).
Results reveal pronounced changes clustered in northern Canada, Alaska, Siberia, and Arctic Ocean coastal zones. These regions display heterogeneous patterns reflecting localized frost condition shifts. Northern Canada and Alaska show trends consistent with permafrost degradation driven by rising temperatures and seasonal frost variations. Siberian trends suggest accelerating permafrost thaw with implications for carbon release, ecosystem function, and infrastructure integrity. Coastal Arctic zones exhibit changes linked to sea ice retreat, coastal erosion, and permafrost-climate interactions.
This research demonstrates the value of combining statistical and artificial intelligence methods to monitor environmental change in permafrost landscapes, providing critical insights for understanding slope instability drivers in a warming Arctic.
Acknowledgement: This work was supported by the European Union's Horizon 2020 programme (Grant No. 101086386, EO-PERSIST).
How to cite: Vasile, M., Rautiainen, K., Holmberg, M., Vârghileanu, M., Alexandru, N., and Șandric, I.: Understanding Soil Freeze-Thaw Dynamics and Slope Instability in Arctic Regions Under Climate Change, EGU General Assembly 2026, Vienna, Austria, 3–8 May 2026, EGU26-19823, https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu26-19823, 2026.
