Climate-Driven Hail Risk Projections for the Continental United States

Hail causes billions in annual insured losses worldwide. It damages solar panels, roofs, vehicles, and crops; creating massive repair costs and operational disruptions. Financial institutions, insurers, and real estate investors face significant exposure to hail-driven losses, which affect portfolio valuations, underwriting decisions, and asset protection strategies. This hazard triggers immediate insurance claims, jeopardises infrastructure investments, and disrupts supply chains; making it critical for enterprise risk management. As climate change impacts severe weather patterns, businesses need forward-looking hail risk information and not just historical data.

We present a new hail risk model developed by Climate X, featuring future projections across different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for the continental United States. Our model integrates baseline hail hazard data with climate projection methodologies to assess risk under multiple future scenarios. The framework combines high-resolution meteorological data with vulnerability curves based on asset-specific characteristics to quantify direct physical damage across infrastructure and commercial, industrial, and residential buildings.

The model provides risk assessment at both asset and portfolio levels across multiple return periods, enabling stakeholders to evaluate present-day exposure and future climate scenarios. By incorporating SSP-based projections, our approach addresses the limitations of historical-only assessments and provides actionable intelligence for climate adaptation planning and risk management strategies in a changing climate.