Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica: humanitarian catastrophe and protection gap in residential buildings

Melissa made landfall as a Category 5 major hurricane near New Hope, St. Elizabeth Parish in southwestern Jamaica on Tuesday, October 28 2025. It had maximum sustained winds of 295 km/h, and an accumulated precipitation exceeding 600 mm in most of the Caribbean island.

Moody’s RMS Event Response estimated private market insured losses from Hurricane Melissa to be between US$3 billion and US$5 billion. More striking, the total economic losses in Jamaica from this event are expected to be around one order of magnitude higher, and could potentially exceed the island’s GDP, which was approximately US$20 billion in 2024. 

Several field reconnaissance surveys highlighted a dichotomy in Jamaica’s building stock between the insured and uninsured. Most insured buildings (in the industrial and commercial lines, e.g. hotels) are well-built, traditionally designed for seismic risk with concrete or reinforced masonry structures. In contrast, uninsured residential buildings largely exhibit less stringent build quality or enforcement of wind and flood design provisions, due in part to a lack of major hurricane landfalls since Gilbert in 1988. For example the flood insurance penetration in single-family dwelling is estimated to be as low as 7% in the island.

While the capital city of Kingston was largely spared from damaging winds, many other towns were devastated by a combination of catastrophic winds and widespread inland flooding. Being an island, repairs and recovery will inevitably go through significant supply chain challenges, even as several key ports on the island remain operational. For these reasons, recovery efforts are expected to take several months, if not years.

This analysis will explore the modelling behind the loss estimates presented, as well as the humanitarian catastrophe that this event represented for the general population, addressing the issues of the protection gap and building quality in the residential stock.