Asymmetric Resilience and Trade-offs in Value Chains of Carbon Fiber Composites for Aviation

Carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) is a critical material for lightweighting strategies in aviation, enabling substantial emission reductions over the aircraft life cycle. However, the manufacturing value chain of CFRP is highly energy-intensive and costly. While its operational fuel-saving potential is well recognized, integrated assessments that systematically weigh upstream value-chain environmental and economic burdens against downstream application benefits remain limited. This gap is particularly critical in the context of China, which now accounts for over 50% of global carbon fiber production capacity. Such concentration raises concerns regarding value chain resilience, systemic risk exposure, and the uneven distribution of environmental and economic burdens across regions.

We develop a comprehensive cradle-to-gate life cycle assessment (LCA) and cost accounting model based on primary data from more than 20 Chinese enterprises, collectively representing approximately 60% of China’s carbon fiber production capacity. The analysis covers the full CFRP supply chain, including acrylonitrile (AN) synthesis, polyacrylonitrile (PAN) polymerization and spinning, precursor stabilization and carbonization, and final CFRP processing. To assess value-chain resilience and trade-offs, we introduce the concept of break-even flight distance, defined as the operational threshold at which fuel-saving benefits offset production-stage environmental and economic burdens.
Results reveal an asymmetry between environmental and economic resilience. The cradle-to-gate carbon footprint of aerospace-grade CFRP reaches 114 kg CO₂ per kg, substantially higher than that of aluminum alloys. Environmentally, CFRP substitution is highly resilient: operational fuel savings offset production-related emissions within approximately two years of aircraft operation. Economically, however, the CFRP value chain appears fragile. Ultra-high manufacturing costs and market prices (exceeding 2400 CNY/kg) drive the economic break-even distance into the range of tens of millions of kilometers, comparable to the aircraft’s service lifetime.

These findings highlight a critical mismatch within clean-tech value chains, where environmental benefits coexist with significant upstream economic risks. The results underscore the need for cost-reduction technologies and carefully designed green industrial policies to enhance value chain resilience, rebalance risk distribution, and align economic feasibility with climate mitigation goals.