Multi-dimensional Spatial Modeling of Climate-Soil-Water Dynamics: Assessing Crop Productivity and Quality Factors in South-Eastern Romania

The agricultural landscape of South-Eastern Romania, specifically in the counties of Constanța and Tulcea, represents a complex socio-ecological system that is increasingly vulnerable to climate-driven stressors. This study quantifies and models the spatial interplay between climate variables, soil characteristics, and water availability to determine their collective influence on plant growth, final yield, and crop quality. The research employs a multi-source data fusion approach, integrating high-resolution satellite imagery (Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8/9) with CORINE Land Cover, EUCropmap, and AGRI4CAST datasets to map spatial heterogeneity in crop coverage and land-use transitions. To bridge the gap between spectral indices (such as NDVI, EVI, and NDWI) and actual agricultural output, the model incorporates multi-annual statistics on crop harvesting. Using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and Machine Learning algorithms (Random Forest), we analyze the non-stationary relationships between: (i) climate drivers of crop production, such as precipitation patterns, thermal accumulation (GDD), and evapotranspiration rates; (ii) edaphic factors, such as soil moisture retention and organic matter content specific to the Chernozem and Fluvisol profiles of the region; (iii) water-availability constrains, such as proximity to the Danube, the influence of the Black Sea’s maritime climate, and availability of irrigation. Preliminary findings indicate that while soil fertility remains high in parts of Constanța, water scarcity due to limited irrigation and reduced air humidity acts as the primary limiting factor, creating high-yield variability. In the Tulcea region, the influence of the Danube Delta creates a distinct micro-environmental signature that benefits certain crop types while increasing the risk of salinity-induced quality degradation. As part of the transboundary research project “The impact of European agricultural policies on land use: Romania's experience and lessons for the Republic of Moldova in a European perspective – MapLURoMd”, this study provides a good framework for regional land-use planning and useful insights for the Republic of Moldova’s climate change adaptation policy in agriculture based on Romanian experience.