Designing mitigation pathways in Czech agriculture

Climate change adaptation and mitigation take place in a complex world associated with deep uncertainties related to external factors, among others population growth, new technologies, socio-economic developments and their subsequent impacts (Haasnoot et al., 2013, 2024). Therefore, there is a need for flexible framework that can respond to these challenges, bridge the social and environmental sciences and support climate change mitigation. Scenario planning can assist in developing integrative mental models to deliver pathways of change while incorporating alternative policies, evolving innovative practices and management options (Sroufe and Watts, 2022). The fundamental strength of the pathways approach is their ability to deal with uncertainty by assessing possible future impacts and navigating across multiple future trajectories. Pathways are designed to achieve future vision and assess whether the desired objectives have been accomplished (Coulter, 2019). Specifically, this approach can help to explore potential future trajectories, investigate innovation for carbon sequestering and more sustainable agriculture (Sroufe and Watts, 2022). So far, limited literature concerning development of pathways approach to GHG mitigation in agriculture exists.

Our approach aims to combine SSPs (Shared-socioeconomic pathways) downscaled for the Czech Republic within AdAgriF project with Mitigation pathways developed for Czech agriculture. Such integration enables us to assess the full potential of particular SSP-pathway combinations while considering future uncertainties. These SSP-independent pathways are not tied to a single SSP storyline, but instead each pathway is assessed for robustness across SSPs. This approach avoids over-commitment to one socio-economic future and highlights no-regret and robust mitigation pathways (bundles of measures).

This presentation highlights the process of interdisciplinary cooperation in order to support the pathway co-development, which involves exploring potential trajectories of pathways and their mitigation measures as well as SSPs with modelling using various agro-ecosystem simulation models that will be applied.

 

References:

Haasnoot, M., Di Fant, V., Kwakkel, J., & Lawrence, J. (2024). Lessons from a decade of adaptive pathways studies for climate adaptation. Global Environmental Change, 88, 102907. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2024.102907

Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J. H., Walker, W. E., & Ter Maat, J. (2013). Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world. Global Environmental Change, 23(2), 485–498. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006

Sroufe, R., & Watts, A. (2022). Pathways to Agricultural Decarbonization: Climate Change Obstacles and Opportunities in the US. Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 182, 106276. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2022.106276