Trust or Stagnation? Institutions, Social Values, and the Future of Forest Ecosystem Services in Europe

Trust or Stagnation? Institutions, Social Values, and the Future of Forest Ecosystem Services in Europe

Environmental issues are fundamentally societal and cultural, necessitating interdisciplinary approaches to understand how human systems interact with ecological functions. While Europe is a highly forested region with a long history of social–environmental interactions, the adoption of Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) remains comparatively limited. This research employs a scenario-based foresight approach to bridge social science and environmental studies, investigating how public funding frameworks can better integrate PES to support forest ecosystem services (ES).

The study employs a qualitative methodology grounded in scenario-based foresight. To ensure policy relevance and analytical coherence, a fast-track scenario approach was adopted, drawing on the EU OpenNESS scenario set (Wealth-being, United-we-stand, Eco-center, and Rural Revival) as a foundational framework. Data were generated through horizon scanning, combining literature synthesis with primary expert insights from nine European forest-related case studies. These inputs were analysed using an expanded STEEP-V framework, which explicitly integrates social values alongside social, technological, economic, environmental, and political drivers of change.

The findings further highlight that current institutional arrangements—particularly complex administrative procedures, fragmented policy objectives, and rigid funding structures—often discourage participation from forest owners, who do not always act as purely economically rational agents. To explore institutional alternatives, four integration strategies were therefore evaluated: Business-as-Usual, voluntary enhancement of existing funds (Integration+), mandatory enhancement (Integration++), and the creation of a dedicated PES fund. Results indicate that Integration+ is the most robust strategy across all plausible futures, offering flexibility while remaining politically and institutionally feasible.

Unlike existing PES studies that focus primarily on ecological effectiveness or site-level implementation challenges, this contribution emphasizes how future social values, institutional design, and funding architectures jointly shape environmental outcomes. Ultimately, it argues that the future of forest ecosystem services depends on the synergy between adaptive policy design and evolving societal stewardship. To enable viable climate action and sustainable land-use pathways, governance systems must move toward administrative simplification and trust-based arrangements that foster a more resilient and constructive relationship between people and the environment.

Key words: Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES); Socio-ecological systems; Scenario-based foresight; Institutional innovation; EU funding frameworks.