Dynamics of ecosystem services in response to land use and climate change: a case study in the eastern Italian Alps

Alpine forest cover has increased in recent decades due to socioeconomic factors and climate change. This study focuses on the evolution of the ecosystem services offered by the forest in the Paneveggio region (Trentino, Central Eastern Alps, Italy) since 1954. Although the expansion of the forests could be viewed as a renaturalization, this trend also affected habitats diversity and landscape after the 1990s. The Vaia windstorm that hit the area in 2018 caused significant damage, underscoring the necessity of accurate ecosystem service quantification. In accordance with the Common International Classification for Ecosystem Services (CICES), this work aims to quantify some of the ecosystem services that the forest provides over time using a spatio-temporal approach, recognizing the complexities of ecological, social, and economic drivers shaping contemporary landscapes. We performed GIS spatial analysis using GRASS GIS, QGIS and a set of maps of forest coverage that were obtained from historical maps and aerial photos. Information on provisioning services, including wildlife trends, timber, and cattle numbers, was gathered from a variety of literature sources. Carbon stock and erosion protection were computed, the latter using the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). The sales of postcards showing the same landscape over time were used to gauge aesthetic preferences. Between the 1950s and 2018, the area covered by forests increased steadily, bringing with it all the benefits directly associated with trees, such as protection from erosion and carbon stock. However, biodiversity showed a more complicated pattern, with losses in open areas benefiting species that live in forests while harming priority habitats. Additionally, there was a fluctuating pattern in aesthetic preferences, indicating a preference for a well-balanced landscape of trees and grass. After 2018, some services were reduced, including protection and aesthetics, because of fallen and standing dead trees and the building of avalanche defence systems to cope with deforestation. To raise awareness of climate change, some of the fallen areas were turned into outdoor laboratories and opportunities for the development of multi-species forests, even attracting disaster tourism. Forest landscapes are constantly changing, requiring adaptive management strategies that address climate change while sustaining biodiversity, ecosystem services, and human value. Gathering information from several data sources is advocated by many authors as most appropriate to develop an evidence-based management strategy tailored to local situation. Developing long-term solutions to deal with a changing climate and society can be aided by an understanding of historical ecosystem dynamics. Our study contributes to a multidisciplinary understanding of past changes in Alpine environments and highlights the importance of ecosystem connectivity and restoration across spatial and temporal scales. This integrated perspective supports innovative mountain landscape planning and promotes biodiversity conservation amid growing pressures from anthropization and climate change. Forest management should integrate climate challenges into a broader landscape vision that balances ecological sustainability, forest production, and human–wildlife coexistence. This approach promotes resilience through mountain landscape diversification, supports ecosystem services, and provides a clear narrative of landscape change for the public and policymakers, encouraging inclusive, historically informed planning.